The Generational Power Balance

Throughout history, the clash between the old and the young has been a defining feature of both reality and literature. Parents have power over their children… but as those juveniles approach adolescence, they begin to put pressure on their parents’ power. They test the rules; they rebel; they create their own rules. The parents are puzzled, frustrated and resentful about the shift in the balance of power.  They fight back; try to exert their leadership in an attempt to maintain their power. But as they grow towards old age, they are forced to relinquish it, while the world changes into a place they cease to recognize from their youth.

The friction between old and young is set to become a feature of the twenty first century, as we approach a period where the balance of power reaches virgin territory.  This is not to say that relationships between the generations are expected to worsen; rather that the unprecedented demographic changes to come will have knock-on effects that we cannot yet imagine.

How can we be so sure that trials lie ahead? Demographic trends are incredibly easy to predict. Decades pass between the birth of children and their growth into adulthood, while rises in life expectancy due to affluence and better medical care are gradual. Consequently, it is possible to predict accurately what proportion of the population will be economically active, and what proportion will be dependant, for a considerable time in the future.  Hence, we know that rising as people are living longer and having fewer children – and having them later in life - population structure will skew much more towards the aged.

Statistical prediction is one thing. Predicting the implications of such trends on society is another thing entirely. In the 1900s, demographers could – or at least should – have predicted that trend toward city-living as opposed to country-living was likely to continue, as indeed it did, becoming one of the most defining features of the twentieth century. The political, economic, social and environmental implications of this shift were much harder to predict, however.

Many economically developed countries already fear that by 2025, there will be too few young tax-payers in the working population to support those in old age. This is the generation that requires pensions, medical care, local services and other benefits. Governments are already putting in steps, such as compulsory work pensions and increases in the retirement age in an attempt to mitigate the problem.  How effective these measures prove to be remains to be seen. Moreover, this isn’t just a predicament for richer countries.  All less economically developed countries outside the AIDS stricken regions of Sub-Saharan African are experiencing the same demographic trends, and, unless their economies develop extremely quickly, their populations will suffer much more.

Economically, therefore, adults will be at the mercy of the elderly.  Governments will be obliged to put money and efforts into the provision for the elderly and working adults will have to forego their share. But perhaps such a conclusion is too glib. The scenario could pan out in differently.  After all, rising elderly populations also bring opportunities for the young, such as in employment in products and services geared towards the older generation. Moreover, the shift comes at a time when seniority is beginning to count for less in the workplace than in the past. Youthful traits, such as innovation, creativity and familiarity with new technology are being recognized more and more. Perhaps power will not shift towards the elderly as much as demographic data suggests.

Add another twist, and we realize that the older generation are not the old-fashioned bedridden fuddy-duddies that they perhaps were perceived to be in the past. The over-seventies look younger and are fitter than ever. Moreover, their tastes are less divergent from those of younger generations than they used to be. They listen to rock music, study at university, embrace new hobbies, travel and socialize. The lines between youth and age, culturally at least, have blurred.

This may mean that a standard retirement age may become a thing of the past, as vigorous people in their seventies and eighties choose to carry on working. Such a trend would greatly ease the tax burden on the younger generations, as well as giving the older generation more choice. However, it comes as a two edged coin, as young, inexperienced workers would be forced to compete for jobs with the seasoned workers,; while those in employment may never get the promotion they desire if the old guy at the top refuses to quit.

Of course, the predictions envisaged in this scenario will only come to pass if the world develops in a relatively benign way. In the twentieth century population shifts were irrevocably altered by world war and economic depression, and similar events could afflict coming generations too.  Until we know for sure, we can rest easy in the knowledge that the problems which arise now are the problems of success – problems that arise through economic growth, better medication, reduced inequality and by maintaining peace.

AUSTRALIA’S CONVICT COLONIES

A.  The 1700s in Britain saw widespread poverty and rising crime, and those convicted of crimes faced harsh penalties, including transportation to one of Britain's overseas colonies. Since 1615, convicts had been transported to Britain's American colonies, both as punishment and a source of labour, but this practice was halted by the Revolutionary War in America (1775-1783). The British government decided to establish a new prison colony, and Botany Bay in New South Wales was chosen as the site, (Captain Cook, exploring the southeast coast of Australia in 1770, had named the land New South Wales and claimed it for Britain.) Between 1787 and 1868, almost 160,000 convicts, of whom about 25,000 were women, were sent to Australia to serve sentences ranging from 7 years to life.

B. <___>  Eleven ships set sail from England in 1787 to take the first group of about 750 British convicts to Australia. The fleet reached Botany Bay in January 1788, but nearby Sydney Cove was selected as a more suitable site for the new settlement, which later became the city of Sydney. The first few years were difficult, with severe food shortages; by 1792, however, there were government farms and ovate gardens. Convicts worked on these farms, or on construction projects such as building roads and bridges. Although the settlement was a prison colony, few convicts served their sentences in jail. They lived in houses they had built themselves, and established families, businesses and farms. A settlement was also established on Norfolk Island, where some convicts were sent for crimes committed after arrival in the colony. Two more settlements were established on Van Diemen's Land (now Tasmania), in 1803 and 1804.

C. <___>  Convicts not involved in public work were assigned to free settlers, providing labour in exchange for food, clothing and shelter. Some masters treated the convicts cruelly, and the punishment of convicts, particularly in the early days, could be arbitrary and savage. Lachlan Macquarie, governor of New South Wales from 1809 to 1819, adopted a more humane approach. He encouraged convicts to reform by rewarding good behaviour, even granting pardons to convicts before their sentence was completed. These emancipists, as they were called, were given land and government assistance to help them start farming. His policies were unpopular both with British authorities and wealthy free settlers, however, and the next governors were under orders to ensure that life for convicts became much stricter and more controlled. There were harsher punishments for second offenders, such as working in the ‘iron gangs’, where men were chained together to carry out exhausting work on the roads, or being sent to penal settlements where punishment was deliberately brutal so that it would act as a deterrent.

D. <___>  In the early years of settlement, the convicts greatly outnumbered free immigrants and settlers. In 1810, convicts made up almost 60 percent of the population, and over 20,000 new convicts arrived between 1821 and 1830. Even in 1831, convicts still comprised 45 percent of the population, with ex-convicts and emancipists making up another 30 percent. 25 percent of the population now consisted of people born in the colonies, and free people outnumbered convicts.

E. <___>  The first group of free settlers had arrived in Australia in 1793 to seek their fortune in the new land. Their numbers grew, with about 8,000 free settlers arriving in the 1820s to take advantage of free land grants and cheap convict labour. In 1831, the British government offered money to support new settlers, hoping to attract skilled workers and single women as immigrants. Between 1831 and 1840, more than 40,000 immigrants arrived in Australia.

F. <___>  During the 1820s there was a lengthy campaign to win certain rights for emancipists, which was opposed by wealthy free settlers. In the 1830s, free immigrants to New South Wales and Van Diemen’s Land, unhappy about living in a prison colony where civil liberties were restricted and convict labour resulted in low wages, increasingly voiced their opposition to transportation. Again, wealthy landowners disagreed, but a growing number of reformers in England were also opposed to convicting transportation. In 1838, a committee set up by the British Parliament recommended that the government end transportation to New South Wales and Van Diemen’s Land, and abolish assignment. The British duly abolished assignment, and transportation – at least to New South Wales – was halted in 1840.

G. <___> Transportation continued, however, to other colonies and settlements. In the 1840s, most British convicts were sent to Van Diemen’s Land, where the British government introduced a convict system based on stages of reform, with the convicts gaining increasing levels of freedom for continued good behaviour. Transportation to the eastern colonies was abolished in 1852. In contrast, the convict system in Western Australia began in 1850, at the request of the Western Australian government, and continued until 1868. Convicts served part of their sentences in Britain before being transported to the colony, where they worked on badly-needed public construction projects under a system similar to that tried in Van Diemen’s Land.

Britain needs strong TV industry

Comedy writer Armando Iannucci has called for an industry-wide defence of the BBC and British programme-makers. "The Thick of It" creator made his remarks in the annual MacTaggart Lecture at the Edinburgh TV Festival.
"It's more important than ever that we have more strong, popular channels... that act as beacons, drawing audiences to the best content," he said. Speaking earlier, Culture Secretary John Whittingdale rejected suggestions that he wanted to dismantle the BBC.
'Champion supporters'

Iannucci co-wrote "I'm Alan Partridge", wrote the movie "In the Loop" and created and wrote the hit "HBO" and "Sky Atlantic show Veep". He delivered the 40th annual MacTaggart Lecture, which has previously been given by Oscar winner Kevin Spacey, former BBC director general Greg Dyke, Jeremy Paxman and Rupert Murdoch. Iannucci said: "Faced with a global audience, British television needs its champion supporters."
He continued his praise for British programming by saying the global success of American TV shows had come about because they were emulating British television. "The best US shows are modelling themselves on what used to make British TV so world-beating," he said. "US prime-time schedules are now littered with those quirky formats from the UK - the "Who Do You Think You Are"'s and the variants on "Strictly Come Dancing" - as well as the single-camera non-audience sitcom, which we brought into the mainstream first. We have changed international viewing for the better."

With the renewal of the BBC's royal charter approaching, Iannucci also praised the corporation. He said: "If public service broadcasting - one of the best things we've ever done creatively as a country - if it was a car industry, our ministers would be out championing it overseas, trying to win contracts, boasting of the British jobs that would bring." In July, the government issued a green paper setting out issues that will be explored during negotiations over the future of the BBC, including the broadcaster's size, its funding and governance.

Primarily Mr Whittingdale wanted to appoint a panel of five people, but finally he invited two more people to advise on the channer renewal, namely former Channel 4 boss Dawn Airey and journalism professor Stewart Purvis, a former editor-in-chief of ITN. Iannucci bemoaned the lack of "creatives" involved in the discussions.

"When the media, communications and information industries make up nearly 8% our GDP, larger than the car and oil and gas industries put together, we need to be heard, as those industries are heard. But when I see the panel of experts who've been asked by the culture secretary to take a root and branch look at the BBC, I don't see anyone who is a part of that cast and crew list. I see executives, media owners, industry gurus, all talented people - but not a single person who's made a classic and enduring television show."

'Don't be modest'
Iannucci suggested one way of easing the strain on the licence fee was "by pushing ourselves more commercially abroad".
"Use the BBC's name, one of the most recognised brands in the world," he said. "And use the reputation of British television across all networks, to capitalise financially oversees. Be more aggressive in selling our shows, through advertising, through proper international subscription channels, freeing up BBC Worldwide to be fully commercial, whatever it takes.

"Frankly, don't be icky and modest about making money, let's monetise the bezeesus Mary and Joseph out of our programmes abroad so that money can come back, take some pressure off the licence fee at home and be invested in even more ambitious quality shows, that can only add to our value."

Mr Whittingdale, who was interviewed by ITV News' Alastair Stewart at the festival, said he wanted an open debate about whether the corporation should do everything it has done in the past.  He said he had a slight sense that people who rushed to defend the BBC were "trying to have an argument that's never been started".

"Whatever my view is, I don't determine what programmes the BBC should show," he added. "That's the job of the BBC." Mr Whittingdale said any speculation that the Conservative Party had always wanted to change the BBC due to issues such as its editorial line was "absolute nonsense".